A blue wave in the 2026 elections? It’s not likely, and here’s why.

Democratic strategists have been counting the days to the 2026 midterms ever since Nov. 5, 2024. Republicans, meanwhile, have kept their foot on the gas since reclaiming full control of Washington this January, well aware that political winds rarely blow a political party's way after two years of unified governance.

But Democrats are bound to be disappointed at the 2026 midterm results, finding that the wave elections of old resemble little more than faint white caps off a qui...